This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Apple.

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

ChatGPT

Claude by Anthropic

Threads

#1 Free App

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5?

Tim Cook is scheduled to participate in an event, "Apple WWDC 2026" on June 8, 2026, 1 PM ET (see: https://developer.apple.com/wwdc26/schedule/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook says the listed term at any point during the event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips or prerecorded videos are aired where Tim Cook is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

Censored instances of a given term that cannot be heard in full will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

If the event is definitively cancelled or otherwise is not released by June 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Developer

Siri

Excited

What will Tim Cook say at Apple WWDC 2026 on June 8th?

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone). 

Google Gemini

#2 Free App

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5?

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click “Apps” at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to “Top Paid Apps” and click “See All.” Then under “Paid Apps” in the “Top Charts” section, you’ll see the list that will be used as the resolution source for this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-paid).

Shadowrocket

HotSchedules

AnkiMobile Flashcards

#1 Paid App

#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 5?

John Ternus is scheduled to participate in an event, "Apple WWDC 2026" on June 8, 2026, 1 PM ET (see https://developer.apple.com/wwdc26/schedule/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Ternus says the listed term at any point during the event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips or prerecorded videos are aired where John Ternus is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

Censored instances of a given term that cannot be heard in full will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

If the event is definitively cancelled or otherwise is not released by June 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Privilege

Amazing

Update / Updated

What will John Ternus say at Apple WWDC 2026 on June 8th?

Craig Federighi is scheduled to participate in an event, "Apple WWDC 2026" on June 8, 2026, 1 PM ET (see https://developer.apple.com/wwdc26/schedule/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Craig Federighi says the listed term at any point during the event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips or prerecorded videos are aired where Craig Federighi is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

Censored instances of a given term that cannot be heard in full will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

If the event is definitively cancelled or otherwise is not released by June 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Apple Intelligence

What will Craig Federighi say at Apple WWDC 2026 on June 8th?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release the listed product or software during the WWDC 2026 keynote currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on June 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the WWDC 2026 keynote will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release the listed product or software during the WWDC 2026 keynote currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on June 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the WWDC 2026 keynote will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.

A qualifying announcement must state that Siri will receive new AI-powered capabilities beyond those publicly available before the WWDC 2026 keynote. Existing Siri features, minor design changes, performance improvements, or backend upgrades will not qualify unless Apple presents them as a new or materially upgraded AI-enhanced Siri experience.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-Charged Siri

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release the listed product or software during the WWDC 2026 keynote currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on June 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the WWDC 2026 keynote will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.

A qualifying announcement must state that Apple will release a standalone Siri app. Siri features embedded within existing apps, system settings, or the existing Siri interface will not qualify unless Apple presents them as a distinct Siri app.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Standalone Siri App

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release the listed product or software during the WWDC 2026 keynote currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on June 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified software becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the WWDC 2026 keynote will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.

A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify next-generation versions of all six of Apple’s major operating systems: iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, tvOS, and visionOS. Equivalent successor designations will qualify, but announcements covering fewer than all six operating systems will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

All Six OS 27 Versions

What will Apple announce at Apple WWDC 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new HomePod mini product by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "HomePod mini" and be recognized as a successor to the original HomePod mini product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new HomePod mini product released without a number, under a designation other than HomePod mini 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the HomePod mini and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a MacBook with a touchscreen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

A qualifying release of a MacBook with a touchscreen by Apple will only count if it is explicitly branded a MacBook. For example, an iMac will not qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". A qualifying touchscreen must be a true screen; a touch bar will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a "MacBook" product with cellular connectivity by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "MacBook". A product that would accomplish a similar function will not qualify, the name must actually be "MacBook".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MacBook Neo is no longer available for purchase from Apple by the public by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements from Apple indicating intent to stop offering the MacBook Neo for purchase by the general public on a specific date will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced date is within this market's timeframe. Announcements that do not indicate a specific date, or which are contingent on future events will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be statements from Apple or a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ari Weinstein ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI.

An official announcement of Ari’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Ari indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.