This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Choi-wan. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Choi-wan in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". If JMA never assigns Choi-wan an intensity class, this market will resolve to "Severe tropical storm or weaker". JMA's own bounds: "Severe tropical storm or weaker" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), "Strong" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), "Very strong" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and "Violent" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more.

JMA states the intensity class in the "Intensity" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's "Grade", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades "TY". Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for Choi-wan will not be considered for resolution.

This market will resolve once JMA stops publishing analyses for Choi-wan. If JMA has not stopped publishing analyses for Choi-wan by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest intensity class published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used.

Revisions published before JMA stops publishing analyses for Choi-wan will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution.

If JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the highest intensity class published in the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered.

Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous analysis under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for Choi-wan (JMA typhoon number 2627) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the "Intensity" field.  Past positions for T2627 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202627.html.en, where each Daily Satellite Image opens a page giving the position recorded at that time. That archive republishes JMA's own track data and is maintained by the National Institute of Informatics, but does not state Intensity in categories rather it shows Central Pressure and Maximum Wind.

Very strong

Violent

Strong

How strong will Choi-wan be?

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. 

If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. 

Other

Isaias

Josephine

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) states in its tropical cyclone information that the center of Tropical Storm Surigae (JMA designation T2626; PAGASA local name "Queenie") made landfall on or crossed Japanese land, or publishes for T2626 a "Center position" under an "Analysis" heading whose coordinates fall on Japanese land, by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Either one is sufficient on its own. A qualifying Center position counts however briefly the center remains over land, and counts on an island of any size.

"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.

"Center position" is the field of that exact name in JMA's tropical cyclone information for T2626, and it is the only coordinate this market reads. Only a Center position given under an "Analysis" heading counts; a Center position given for a forecast hour will not be considered for resolution.

JMA states each Center position in degrees and minutes with a rounded decimal in parentheses, in the form "N19 degrees 10 minutes (19.2 degrees)". Coordinates will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Where JMA publishes more than one Center position for the same analysis time, the one shown at the resolution source governs, and a position counts regardless of any accuracy qualifier JMA attaches to it. A Center position falling exactly on a coastline will be treated as on land. Only Center positions JMA publishes for T2626 and JMA's own written statements resolve this market: the line joining those positions on a track map or in a data product is a drawing, not a published Center position, and will not be considered for resolution, including where it passes over an island. Interpolation or track reconstruction by any party and landfall reports or bulletins from any other meteorological agency, will not be considered for resolution. If the drawn track crosses Japanese territory but no published Center position has coordinates on Japanese land and JMA makes no statement that the center crossed it, this market will resolve to "No".

JMA's "Grade" for T2626, in the same advisory as the qualifying Center position or in effect at the time of a qualifying JMA statement, must be a tropical cyclone grade (TD, TS, STS, or TY). A crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed will not be considered for resolution. 

This market will resolve once JMA publishes a qualifying Center position or statement, or at October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If JMA has published neither at that point, or has ceased publishing tropical cyclone information for T2626, this market will resolve to "No". No substitute data provider will be used.

If JMA corrects a published Center position as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected position will be used. If JMA removes a published Center position as erroneous without replacement, the market's stated data-unavailability rule applies. Otherwise the published Center position stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published information will not be considered.

Revisions published before this market resolves will be considered; revisions published after it will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best-track reanalysis will not be considered for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Center position" field under the "Analysis" heading in JMA's tropical cyclone information for T2626, at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en. Past positions for T2626 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202626.html.en, where each Daily Satellite Image opens a page giving the position recorded at that time. That archive republishes JMA's own track data and is maintained by the National Institute of Informatics, but states position in rounded decimal degrees, so where it differs from the Center position published by JMA, the JMA value governs.

Surigae makes landfall in Japan?

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of market creation the NHC had not classified any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any point in the 2026 season, so the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 is the first Atlantic-basin system the NHC classifies as a hurricane during October 2026. Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".

A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the issuance timestamp of the first NHC public advisory classifying it as a hurricane in the Atlantic basin, not the estimated time at which its winds first reached 74 mph. That first advisory governs regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. A system whose first classifying advisory straddles midnight between October 31 and November 1, 2026 falls in the October 26 to October 31 bracket only if that advisory was issued before 12:00 AM ET on November 1, 2026.

The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in October 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026, regardless of whether an Atlantic hurricane forms later in 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in October 2026".

The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

No Atlantic hurricane will form in October 2026

October 16 to October 20, 2026

October 1 to October 10, 2026

When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?

This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".

A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".

Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026. 

Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.

If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.

If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.

Florida

South Carolina

Louisiana

Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?

This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.

All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.

One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".

If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).

Greater than 8

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.  

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Hurricanes