This market will resolve to "Yes" if a single AI artwork sells for $10,000,000 or more at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "major auction house" is restricted to Christie's, Sotheby's, Phillips, Bonhams, China Guardian, or Poly Auction, including any of their salerooms worldwide and their online-only sales. Sales conducted by any other auction house, private sales, dealer or gallery sales, and sales on NFT marketplaces or other online platforms will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, an "AI artwork" is a lot whose artistic content was generated in substantial part by an artificial intelligence system, including generative models, neural networks, other machine learning systems, or an AI-driven robot, and which is identified as such, by the auction house in the lot description, catalogue entry, or official sale materials, by the relevant artists, or by a consensus of credible reporting. Works in which artificial intelligence was used only incidentally, such as for upscaling, retouching, or color correction, works that depict or address artificial intelligence as subject matter without being AI-generated, and works produced solely with conventional digital tools will not qualify.

The sale price will be the final sale price for the lot as reported by the auction house, in US dollars. If both a hammer price and a price including the buyer’s premium are reported, the latter will be used. No amounts will be added to or deducted from the reported price for taxes, shipping costs, or other charges.

The auction must conclude by the deadline, even if official results are published later. If a qualifying auction has concluded by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but official results are not published by the auction house by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

If the price is published in another currency, the auction house's own published US dollar figure will be used if available, and otherwise the exchange rate in effect at the close of the sale. Pre-sale estimates, guarantees, bids that fail to meet the reserve, and withdrawn lots will not qualify. Multiple works offered together will qualify only if the lot is offered and sold as a single artwork.

This market will resolve according to official results published by the relevant auction house; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI artwork hits $10M at major auction in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Christie's" if Christie's announced total sales for the 2026 calendar year are greater than Sotheby's announced total sales for the 2026 calendar year. This market will resolve to "Sotheby's" if Sotheby's announced total sales for the 2026 calendar year are greater than Christie's.

For the purposes of this market, a house's "announced total sales" is the headline global full-year figure that the house itself publishes for the 2026 calendar year, including projections, in its own year-end results announcement or press release, expressed in US dollars. Each figure will be used exactly as the house publishes it, with no adjustment for differences in what the two houses include in their totals. In 2025, this included Christie's total global sales as reported by Christie's (see: https://press.christies.com/62b-projected-global-sales-in-2025/), and Sotheby's consolidated sales as reported by Sotheby's (see: https://www.sothebys.com/en/articles/sothebys-projects-2025-consolidated-sales-of-7-billion/).

Both figures will be compared in US dollars. If a house publishes its full-year total in a currency other than US dollars, that house's own published US dollar figure for the same period will be used if one is published. If no such figure is published, the total will be converted to US dollars at the exchange rate in effect at the time of that house's announcement.

A figure announced before the end of 2026 will qualify, provided the house presents it as its total for the full 2026 calendar year. Revisions will only be considered until both auction houses have published their totals.

If the two announced figures are exactly equal, or if both houses have not published a full-year 2026 total by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If only one house has published such a total by that date, this market will resolve to that house.

This market will resolve according to official announcements published by Christie's (christies.com) and Sotheby's (sothebys.com), with a consensus of credible reporting also being used if necessary.

Christie's vs Sotheby's: higher 2026 sales total?

The Turner Prize is awarded annually by Tate to a British artist for an outstanding exhibition or other presentation of their work. The Turner Prize 2026 shortlist was announced on April 23, 2026, and the shortlisted artists' exhibition runs at Middlesbrough Institute of Modern Art (MIMA) from September 26, 2026 to March 29, 2027. The winner is scheduled to be announced on December 10, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the artist who is awarded the Turner Prize 2026.

If no winner has been declared by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If multiple listed artists are jointly awarded the Turner Prize 2026, this market will resolve in favor of the winning artist whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tate (https://www.tate.org.uk/) and the Turner Prize; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tanoa Sasraku

Simeon Barclay

Kira Freije

Turner Prize 2026 Winner

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Banksy authenticates a new mural or outdoor street artwork between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only works created between market creation and December 31, 2026 will qualify. Artworks created before this market's timeframe but revealed or posted within this market's timeframe will not qualify. 

A qualifying mural or street artwork must be outdoors on a structure or surface other than a canvas. Paintings on canvases or other surfaces designed for art, such as paper or board, will not qualify.

This market will resolve according to confirmation from official Banksy channels including his official Instagram account (@banksy) or official website (banksy.co.uk). Authentication from third-party reporting, gallery attribution, or social media speculation will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?

George Condo's “I Want My Brain Back” is expected to be sold at auction on October 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final auction sale price paid for George Condo's “I Want My Brain Back” is greater than or equal to the listed price. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If no sale is completed, or the sale price is not known definitively, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the final "Lot Sold" price as reported in USD. If the final “Lot Sold” price is reported by Sotheby’s in a different currency, this market will resolve according to the USD value of the sale at the time of final sale.

The market will resolve according to the final listed “Lot Sold” price on Sothebys (https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2026/contemporary-curated-3).

Towns and Woods' Sotheby's picks

George Condo's “I Want My Brain Back” Sale Price

Helen Frankenthaler's “Return and Exit” is expected to be sold at auction on October 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final auction sale price paid for Helen Frankenthaler's “Return and Exit” is greater than or equal to the listed price. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If no sale is completed, or the sale price is not known definitively, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the final "Lot Sold" price as reported in USD. If the final “Lot Sold” price is reported by Sotheby’s in a different currency, this market will resolve according to the USD value of the sale at the time of final sale.

The market will resolve according to the final listed “Lot Sold” price on Sothebys (https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2026/contemporary-curated-3).

Helen Frankenthaler's “Return and Exit” Sale Price

Roy Lichtenstein's “Green Head” is expected to be sold at auction on October 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final auction sale price paid for Roy Lichtenstein's “Green Head” is greater than or equal to the listed price. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If no sale is completed, or the sale price is not known definitively, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the final "Lot Sold" price as reported in USD. If the final “Lot Sold” price is reported by Sotheby’s in a different currency, this market will resolve according to the USD value of the sale at the time of final sale.

The market will resolve according to the final listed “Lot Sold” price on Sothebys (https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2026/contemporary-curated-3).

Roy Lichtenstein's “Green Head” Sale Price

Andy Warhol's “Flowers” is expected to be sold at auction on October 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final auction sale price paid for Andy Warhol's “Flowers” is greater than or equal to the listed price. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If no sale is completed, or the sale price is not known definitively, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the final "Lot Sold" price as reported in USD. If the final “Lot Sold” price is reported by Sotheby’s in a different currency, this market will resolve according to the USD value of the sale at the time of final sale.

The market will resolve according to the final listed “Lot Sold” price on Sothebys (https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2026/contemporary-curated-3).

Andy Warhol's “Flowers” Sale Price

Sam Gilliam's “Untitled” is expected to be sold at auction on October 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final auction sale price paid for Sam Gilliam's “Untitled” is greater than or equal to the listed price. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If no sale is completed, or the sale price is not known definitively, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the final "Lot Sold" price as reported in USD. If the final “Lot Sold” price is reported by Sotheby’s in a different currency, this market will resolve according to the USD value of the sale at the time of final sale.

The market will resolve according to the final listed “Lot Sold” price on Sothebys (https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2026/contemporary-curated-3).

Sam Gilliam's “Untitled” Sale Price

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi" is displayed in a publicly accessible exhibition or permanent gallery installation at any museum, gallery, or cultural institution by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "publicly accessible" is defined as a location to which members of the general public can purchase tickets or otherwise gain admission to view the listed artwork. 

Private viewings, VIP previews, displays at auction house pre-sale exhibitions, displays at art fairs, displays of photographs or reproductions of the work, or displays of digital or NFT versions of the work will NOT be sufficient to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

This market will resolve according to official press releases from exhibiting institutions, or credible reporting from The Art Newspaper, Artnet News, or The New York Times.

Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report scheduled to be published in 2027 reports total global art market sales for 2026 as $65 billion or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

For the purposes of this market, total global art market sales refers to the sales of both dealers and auctions. 

If the 2027 Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report recording 2026 art market sales is not published by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source for this market will be the official Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report as published at artbasel.com. 

Will global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026?

This market will resolve according to the name of the listed artist who is ranked #1 in global fine art auction turnover for the 2026 calendar year according to the Artprice Annual Report covering 2026. 

If the Artprice Annual Report is not published by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET, or does not include a ranked list of top-selling artists by turnover, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve according to the Artprice Annual Report, scheduled for release in early 2027, available at
artprice.com or artmarket.com. 

Pablo Picasso

Other

Jean-Michel Basquiat

Who will be the top-selling artist by total auction sales in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report covering 2026 ranks China as #2 in total art market sales. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, total art market sales refers to both dealer and auction segments. If China is tied with another country for second greatest total art market sales, this market will resolve to "Yes".

This market will resolve according to the annual Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report covering the 2026 calendar year. If no such report is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026?

Alma Thomas's “Red Mums Display” is expected to be sold at auction on October 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final auction sale price paid for Alma Thomas's “Red Mums Display” is greater than or equal to the listed price. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If no sale is completed, or the sale price is not known definitively, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the final "Lot Sold" price as reported in USD. If the final “Lot Sold” price is reported by Sotheby’s in a different currency, this market will resolve according to the USD value of the sale at the time of final sale.

The market will resolve according to the final listed “Lot Sold” price on Sothebys (https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2026/contemporary-curated-3).

$700k+

Alma Thomas's “Red Mums Display” Sale Price

Ed Ruscha's “Cities Across the Globe” is expected to be sold at auction on October 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final auction sale price paid for Ed Ruscha's “Cities Across the Globe” is greater than or equal to the listed price. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If no sale is completed, or the sale price is not known definitively, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the final "Lot Sold" price as reported in USD. If the final “Lot Sold” price is reported by Sotheby’s in a different currency, this market will resolve according to the USD value of the sale at the time of final sale.

The market will resolve according to the final listed “Lot Sold” price on Sothebys (https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2026/contemporary-curated-3).

Ed Ruscha's “Cities Across the Globe” Sale Price

Rashid Johnson's “Anxious Man” is expected to be sold at auction on October 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final auction sale price paid for Rashid Johnson's “Anxious Man” is greater than or equal to the listed price. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If no sale is completed, or the sale price is not known definitively, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the final "Lot Sold" price as reported in USD. If the final “Lot Sold” price is reported by Sotheby’s in a different currency, this market will resolve according to the USD value of the sale at the time of final sale.

The market will resolve according to the final listed “Lot Sold” price on Sothebys (https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2026/contemporary-curated-3).